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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has started the season on fire.

Although this isn't his best start to a season - he found the net 11 times in his first seven games in the 2022-23 season and double digits last year - it nevertheless places him with a three-goal lead in the initial race for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been from the penalty spot makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, fitness issues could potentially disrupt in the eventual Golden Boot winner, but there are two reasons why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the honor so quickly into the term.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has currently registered - and, of similar importance, the total and standard of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the slow start his usual rivals for the award have made.

xG Statistical Breakdown

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) represents how many goals a Premier League player has typically netted from the quantity and caliber of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a figure arbitrarily chosen by data analysts, but by Premier League history.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this campaign from open play, the Norwegian striker is obtaining considerably more good opportunities to score than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at finishing chances than every other footballer in the league, he would still have scored more than twice as many goals as everyone else.

Opportunity Analysis

This is illustrated by examining the number and quality of opportunities that players have had in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this term, a dozen more than every other footballer.

This is actually not especially surprising for him - he had actually taken more open-play attempts at this juncture in the most recent two terms (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the previous term).

However, what's exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this season. His shots have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This number represents is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a rate of 27%.

Among footballers attempting at ten or more efforts, only Stamford Bridge player Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - thanks to a few simple finishes against West Ham United and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of an average of 0.27 is significantly greater than the 0.17 xG rating per effort he had at the start of last season.

In short, the opportunities he has had in the current season have been significantly more straightforward to score from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Past Performance Analysis

Opening a term so impressively is, as mentioned above, not uncommon for Haaland. Following seven matches last campaign he had registered ten strikes - a quartet more than every other footballer and six more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven additional compared to the Etihad attacker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had half the scoring situations (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Indeed this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egyptian attacker has made.

Challengers' Quiet Beginning

It is not just Salah who has started slowly either. Upon reviewing at the highest eleven attackers in the Premier League last season, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the other 10 players combined so far.

Whether because of injuries - several key attackers - long-running transfer sagas in Alexander Isak's case or merely because their teams have struggled (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have failed to perform so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the player with the most goals in Europe's top-five leagues?

That contest is significantly tighter at this opening period because two world-class strikers have similarly opened in excellent condition, with 11 and nine goals correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the top chance quality metric of the three without having taken any penalties renders him the favourite.

Yet given that the two continental superstars are two of the best finishers in European football in terms of outperforming their chance quality metrics, the battle continues intensely.